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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 43

Houston Texans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to KC 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-19-X.Hutchinson.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.27 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.49 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP