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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 16

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model