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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 81

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 6-M.Washington to MIA 41 for 15 yards (45-K.King; 42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.40 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model