MIA @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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HC Mike McDaniel

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HC Aaron Glenn

Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIA

49.6%

NYJ

50.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYJ offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
NYJ defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
MIA offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22

–

NYJ 24

Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIA

Elijah Campbell S Questionable Ankle

Aaron Brewer C Questionable Ankle

Ifeatu Melifonwu S Questionable Thumb

Zach Wilson QB Questionable Illness

NYJ

Justin Fields QB Out Knee

Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB Out Hamstring

Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB Out Hip

Tony Adams S Doubtful Groin

Cam Jones LB Doubtful Hip

Qwan'tez Stiggers CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 34

–

NYJ 10

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:50 TD MIA (12:50) (Shotgun) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Briggs]. MIA 6 – NYJ 0
Q1 08:54 TD MIA (8:54) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-94-T.Baron was injured during the play. MIA 13 – NYJ 0
Q1 03:41 TD MIA (3:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – NYJ 0
Q1 00:42 TD NYJ (:42) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to NYJ 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 21 – NYJ 6
Q2 02:00 FG MIA (2:00) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 24 – NYJ 7
Q4 12:17 FG NYJ (12:17) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. MIA 24 – NYJ 10
Q4 06:26 TD MIA (6:26) (Shotgun) 31-O.Gordon left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 30 – NYJ 10
Q4 02:29 FG MIA (2:29) 47-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 34 – NYJ 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(11:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP

p(convert) 69%

(2:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 80

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP

p(convert) 64%

(:42) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to NYJ 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 25%

(14:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(11:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 6-M.Washington to MIA 41 for 15 yards (45-K.King; 42-T.Hennessy).
Q2 MIA 4th & 14 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(10:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 72

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 60%

(7:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

(2:00) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYJ 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams to MIA 46 for 13 yards (53-C.Goode; 3-K.Britt).
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 27%

(12:19) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to MIA 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 87

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(10:44) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to NYJ 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams to MIA 49 for 14 yards (53-C.Goode; 21-A.Davis). PENALTY on NYJ-89-J.Ruckert, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(8:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 6-M.Washington to MIA 29 for 17 yards (84-S.Smartt).
Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 42

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 52%

(2:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 19 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 75

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.88 EP

p(convert) 38%

(1:07) (Punt formation) 27-M.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 24, recovered by NYJ-32-I.Davis at NYJ 24. 32-I.Davis pushed ob at NYJ 44 for 20 yards (18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

(12:17) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 45 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 44%

(4:35) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook sacked at NYJ 42 for -13 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).
Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 35 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 70%

(2:29) 47-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.