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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 21 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model