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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 72

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.83 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP