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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 90

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYJ 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams to MIA 46 for 13 yards (53-C.Goode; 3-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.09 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 90, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 47, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model