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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 87

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to NYJ 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams to MIA 49 for 14 yards (53-C.Goode; 21-A.Davis). PENALTY on NYJ-89-J.Ruckert, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.12 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model