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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 66

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 6-M.Washington to MIA 29 for 17 yards (84-S.Smartt).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model