4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 19 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.33 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP