Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 75

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Punt formation) 27-M.Moore FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 24, recovered by NYJ-32-I.Davis at NYJ 24. 32-I.Davis pushed ob at NYJ 44 for 20 yards (18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.83 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.88 EP