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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 39-C.Smyth 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model