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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
31.1%
TB
68.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.012 vs Tyler Shough (NO) -0.140 EPA/dropback
  • TB defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 19
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Justin Reid S Out Knee
Taliese Fuaga T Out Ankle
Chris Olave WR Questionable Back

TB

Mike Evans WR Out Collarbone
Rashad Wisdom S Out Quadricep
Jalen McMillan WR Out Neck
Tristan Wirfs T Questionable Oblique
Benjamin Morrison CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 24
–
TB 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:31 TD NO (12:31) (Shotgun) 24-D.Neal up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 08:06 TD TB (8:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – TB 6
  • Q2 09:15 FG TB (9:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NO 7 – TB 10
  • Q3 11:35 TD NO (11:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – TB 10
  • Q3 07:40 TD TB (7:40) (No Huddle) 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – TB 16
  • Q3 01:36 FG NO (1:36) 39-C.Smyth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 17 – TB 17
  • Q4 08:34 TD NO (8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – TB 17
  • Q4 04:58 FG TB (4:58) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NO 24 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:21) 32-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to TB 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 43 for 13 yards (7-T.Hill). PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 30.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 44%

    (1:01) 7-B.Irving right end to TB 48 for -7 yards (96-C.Granderson).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%

    (13:45) 39-C.Smyth 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (11:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to NO 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%

    (9:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 20 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:38) 32-K.Kroeger punts 53 yards to TB 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-K.Johnson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 28. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 28 for no gain (43-M.Davis).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (2:42) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to NO 49 for no gain (56-D.Davis).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 52%

    (:57) 24-D.Neal left guard to TB 44 for -2 yards (5-H.Reddick). TB-5-H.Reddick was injured during the play.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 42%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield right tackle to NO 42 for 4 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 39%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (1:36) 39-C.Smyth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 42%

    (12:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin (4-K.McKinstry).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to NO 17 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux; 56-D.Davis).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (4:58) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (1:54) 32-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 29 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis).