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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to NO 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model