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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model