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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to NO 49 for no gain (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.65 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model