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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield right tackle to NO 42 for 4 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -1.57 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model