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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.09 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP