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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model