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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 32-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model