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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 29 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -1.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model