Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 32-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to TB 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 43 for 13 yards (7-T.Hill). PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.04 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model