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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 7-B.Irving right end to TB 48 for -7 yards (96-C.Granderson).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.02 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model