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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to LAC 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Davis to LAC 22 for -10 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model