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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Monday 2025-12-08 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PHI
48.2%
LAC
51.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: -0.024 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Foot
Jalen Carter DT Out Shoulder
Marcus Epps S Questionable Shoulder
Myles Hinton T Questionable Back

LAC

Tucker Fisk TE Out Ankle
Justin Herbert QB Questionable Hand
Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Elbow
Hassan Haskins RB Questionable Hamstring
Omarion Hampton RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 19
–
LAC 22

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:53 TD LAC (8:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 03:26 FG PHI (3:26) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – LAC 7
  • Q2 05:00 FG LAC (5:00) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PHI 3 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:52 FG PHI (:52) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 6 – LAC 10
  • Q3 05:36 FG LAC (5:36) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PHI 6 – LAC 13
  • Q3 03:27 FG PHI (3:27) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 9 – LAC 13
  • Q4 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) 26-S.Barkley left end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 15 – LAC 13
  • Q4 07:29 FG LAC (7:29) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PHI 16 – LAC 16
  • Q4 02:20 FG PHI (2:20) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 19 – LAC 16
  • Q4 00:12 FG LAC (:12) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PHI 19 – LAC 19
  • Q5 06:29 FG LAC (6:29) 11-C.Dicker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PHI 19 – LAC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:45) 10-B.Mann punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (3:26) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:17) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to PHI 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:55) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to LAC 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Davis to LAC 22 for -10 yards (83-K.Granson).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:46) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to PHI 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-B.Covey to PHI 26 for 14 yards (40-K.Williamson).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (5:00) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (:52) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (5:36) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 71%

    (3:27) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:45) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to PHI 39, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 35%

    (12:02) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to PHI 5, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-B.Covey to PHI 27 for 22 yards (58-M.Wax).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (7:29) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:55) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to LAC 25, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:46) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to PHI 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 40 for 18 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (2:20) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%

    (:12) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.