4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to PHI 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-B.Covey to PHI 26 for 14 yards (40-K.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 26, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model