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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:52) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model