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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model