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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model