Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

(:45) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to PHI 39, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model