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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP