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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to PHI 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 40 for 18 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 36, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model