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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.27 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model