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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to ATL 43 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 7-U.Nwosu).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.06 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model