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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SEA
58.9%
ATL
41.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Kirk Cousins (ATL) -0.055 vs Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.194 EPA/dropback
  • SEA defense: -0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SEA 27
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SEA

Dareke Young WR Out Quadricep
Rylie Mills DE Out Knee

ATL

Drake London WR Out Knee
DeMarcco Hellams S Out Hamstring
Brandon Dorlus DT Out Groin
David Onyemata DT Questionable Foot
James Pearce Jr. LB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 37
–
ATL 9

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:17 FG ATL (7:17) 45-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. SEA 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 00:52 FG SEA (:52) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 01:06 FG ATL (1:06) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: SEA-95-B.Pili has returned to the game. SEA 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 6 – ATL 6
  • Q3 15:00 TD SEA 45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – ATL 6
  • Q3 06:23 TD SEA (6:23) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-55-K.Elliss was injured during the play. SEA 19 – ATL 6
  • Q3 02:43 FG SEA (2:43) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 23 – ATL 6
  • Q4 15:00 FG ATL (15:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. SEA 23 – ATL 9
  • Q4 12:18 TD SEA (12:18) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 29 – ATL 9
  • Q4 08:34 TD SEA (8:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-D.Alford]. SEA 36 – ATL 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 37%

    (11:40) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SEA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ATL 47, Center-41-C.Stoll. 14-J.Agnew to SEA 39 for 14 yards (82-C.White).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (7:17) 45-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:52) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:45) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to ATL 43 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 7-U.Nwosu).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 79%

    (7:38) 45-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (3-N.Emmanwori), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, recovered by ATL-69-J.Nelson at SEA 34.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ATL 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (1:06) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: SEA-95-B.Pili has returned to the game.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (2:43) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 99%

    (5:13) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 1-D.Mooney (39-T.Okada).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

    (:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to ATL 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.