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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model