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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 45-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (3-N.Emmanwori), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, recovered by ATL-69-J.Nelson at SEA 34.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model