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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ATL 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model