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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: SEA-95-B.Pili has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model