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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model