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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.54 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP