Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 99

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(9:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ATL 47, Center-41-C.Stoll. 14-J.Agnew to SEA 39 for 14 yards (82-C.White).

The Three Options

GO -4.48 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.33 EP
70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 99, worth -6.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model