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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Seattle Seahawks 37

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 1-D.Mooney (39-T.Okada).

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model