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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 45-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model