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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 4

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:52) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.25 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP