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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model