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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.5 O/U 33.5

Win Probability

TEN
33.9%
CLE
66.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Shedeur Sanders (CLE) -0.244 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.230 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
CLE 23
Projected margin: CLE by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TEN

Shy Tuttle DT Out Concussion
Lloyd Cushenberry III C Out Foot
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Achilles
Kendell Brooks S Questionable Concussion

CLE

Jack Conklin T Out Concussion
Deshaun Watson QB Out Achilles
Wyatt Teller G Out Calf
Brenden Bates TE Out Ankle
Adin Huntington DT Out Quadricep
Devin Bush LB Questionable Foot
Isaiah McGuire DE Questionable Knee
Mike Hall Jr. DT Questionable Knee
Dylan Sampson RB Questionable Calf
Mason Graham DT Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 31
–
CLE 29

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:58 TD TEN (9:58) 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 01:47 FG CLE (1:47) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined. TEN 7 – CLE 3
  • Q1 01:42 TD TEN (1:42) 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – CLE 3
  • Q2 14:30 TD CLE (14:30) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 12-S.Sanders pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-85-D.Njoku was injured during the play. TEN 14 – CLE 9
  • Q2 02:58 TD CLE (2:58) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – CLE 16
  • Q3 00:58 TD TEN (:58) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – CLE 17
  • Q4 09:35 TD TEN (9:35) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 17-C.Dike for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – CLE 17
  • Q4 06:21 FG TEN (6:21) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 31 – CLE 17
  • Q4 04:47 TD CLE (4:47) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 31 – CLE 23
  • Q4 01:09 TD CLE (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 31 – CLE 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 18 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CLE 46, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (1:47) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%

    (11:48) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 9.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (6:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to TEN 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Penalty on TEN-44-M.Brown, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 26 for 9 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:33) 3-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 18 for 2 yards (21-M.Robinson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (11:45) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 27 yards to TEN 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:05) 3-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to TEN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Robinson.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to TEN 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%

    (3:22) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to TEN 43, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 17-C.Dike to TEN 41 for -2 yards (50-R.Sunahara). PENALTY on TEN-88-D.Martin-Robinson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.Williams, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by TEN-44-M.Brown at CLE 36. 44-M.Brown to CLE 29 for 7 yards (33-R.Hickman).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%

    (6:21) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 20 for 5 yards (52-J.Williams).