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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to TEN 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Penalty on TEN-44-M.Brown, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model