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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 26 for 9 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.51 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model