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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(:33) 3-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 18 for 2 yards (21-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model